Evidence from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan shows that digital aid is a cost-effective, credible, and efficient way to reach vulnerable populations, in this case poor, tech-illiterate, female-headed households, in fragile states.

By
Michael Callen Associate Professor of Economics, LSE

Michael Findley Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Centennial Professor of Government, University of Texas at Austin

Miguel Fajardo Steinhauser PhD student, Department of Economics London School of Economics.

Tarek Ghani Assistant Professor of Strategy, Olin Business School, Washington University

Many contemporary food crises, including those in Sudan, Myanmar, Somalia, Northern Nigeria, Yemen, and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan (the focus of our study), are marked by conflict, instability, repression of vulnerable groups, and fears that aid could be misappropriated by hostile actors. These cases reflect a tragic global trend: humanitarian aid needs are at their highest since 1945 (FCDO 2023). And aid budgets are failing to keep pace. Between 2018 and 2021, humanitarian food security budgets fell 40% in relative terms, from US$85 per person in 2018 to $51 per person (Food Security Information Network 2023). Growing needs and falling budgets raise the importance of cost-effectiveness.

Hunger is also concentrating in fragile and conflict-affected states. In such settings, where oppressive actors control resource flows and restrict access to vulnerable populations, humanitarians face a dilemma: deliver aid and risk supporting hostile actors and fuelling conflict (Nunn and Qian 2014) or halt aid despite acute need. This only compounds the severe logistical challenges in these countries.